The Big Desk

Today is Fed day, which comes in three parts. First is the announcement of the rate decision, at 2 pm. Second comes the Chair’s comments from the podium, which are generally dry and as unrevelatory as the Fed staff can manage. Last comes the Q&A, and this is where the action will be. It’s no secret that Warsh came into the Fed with a mission to cut rates. The realities of sitting behind the big desk, though, have forced him to reckon with the weight of Fed policymaking. Expect that the press pool will tax him heavily on this aspect, and his explanations may give us all some perspective on the extent of the shocks facing the US economy.

So, the excitement starts after 2 pm, but until then experienced traders will exercise caution in what promises to be rangebound morning activity. The one exception may be the transport space. The JBHT CFO yesterday announced a shortfall of upcoming earnings, behind higher costs including fuel. JBHT is a leader in integrated shipping and logistics, and we are already seeing sympathy moves downward in Less Than Truckload carriers like ODFL and FDXF. Both of these names trade well over $100, so the spreads and intraday moves can be quite punishing. Probably not for beginners. Most traders will probably sit on their hands until the Q&A concludes. Keep watch on our trading board for opportunities that emerge throughout the day.