Kapnotes Blog

An old prop-desk rule says short every “cure” headline. Moderna’s melanoma-vaccine trial has MRNA nearly doubling premarket — but with about 14% of the float sold short, this looks less like the news than a short squeeze.

The year's most sluggish premarket puts tradability front and center. With only high-priced, hard-to-manage names moving, the discipline is to sit on your hands until a manageable setup appears.

Premarket activity subsides as earnings season winds down and the major players head to the Hamptons. Lighter summer volume can exaggerate moves in individual names — and why it pays to keep commitments small.

INTC's $15 billion secondary lands two weeks after the Situational Awareness flush. Capex — or a cash grab at the top of the bounce? A lot will depend on the pricing — and why this deal is qualitatively different from most secondaries.

Skin in the game cuts both ways. When an analyst owns the stock, that position starts owning the analysis — the case for a read from someone with nothing to defend.

Risk-on returns to chips and AI after the Situational Awareness fire-sale. Korea, capex and capacity all remain unresolved — but what matters for the active trader is perception among major participants, and it just pivoted.

A second straight circuit-breaker session in Seoul has Korean authorities moving against leverage, and US chips are wearing the consequences. Meanwhile the mechanics that pushed oil lower for three days appear to have run their course.

A 10% overnight rout in Korea's KOSPI is dragging US chips lower — but that index is dominated by just two semiconductor names, and its five-year gain came entirely in the last eighteen months.

Before you argue with the chart, make sure the stock will let you in and out without giving away your edge. Four checks — price, volume, spread, and range — plus one calendar landmine.

Alphabet, Tesla, and Texas Instruments are dragging the tape lower after earnings, and WTI has pushed past $90 — but this market has defied the bearish logic more than once lately.

A stock that's had a good run gaps down on no obvious news — then you see the offering. What these deals do to the shares you already own, and why they follow a big run.

Chips and AI infrastructure are bouncing pre-market — but the move is uneven, and software looks soft. Why patience beats chasing the open.

The red-side panels have been calling it right, and pre-market action is ugly across tech. When the day's gains might just be the losses you avoid.

With chips no longer leading, the market's adrift until a new sector steps up — and it may pay to watch for dilutive offerings.

A couple of event-driven standouts aside, the chip and AI bounce looks muted and leadership is lacking. Why the PPI cheer rings hollow.